I know I know, don't be over-confident, work hard, donate, etc. etc. etc. I have been a contributor for awhile, and when I am paid on Friday, I will be able to donate under the deadline. This diary, however, is about why I plan to have my TV turned off by 9PM or so next Tuesday.
Now go to the electoral calculator and follow along. Start by selecting the Bush Kerry 2004 Election map.
The Bush-Kerry 2004 Map.
Agree or disagree over the likelihood, the following states are spoken of as possibilities to turn out a different result in 2008:
NV, NM, CO, IA, MO, IN, OH, FL, NC, VA, PA, and NH.
Turn those all yellow on the electoral calculator. A structural advantage for Barack Obama has been oft spoken of. Look! He's got 248 electors to John McCain's 163.
Now I'll be ducking and dodging in and out, playing the optimism and pessimism levers to show why no matter how it plays, Florida, North Carolina and Virginia results will seal the deal. Thanks for following along.
New Hampshire <3s McCain, so let's give him their 4 electors. Not terribly likely, but let's paint as grim an East Coast picture as possible. It is now 248:167. </p>
What if McCain pulls a SURPRISE UPSET in the state of PA?! Even though I contend PA is not competitive really this is precisely the surprise upset McCain needs to pull off in order to win, so why not give it to him. Zomg, take PA away and it's only 227:188.
But don't worry. McCain has pulled out of CO entirely, was never really in NM, and has to robocall his home state of AZ because it's tightening fast there. So give Obama CO and NM. These states are pretty solid. 241:188.
Give Obama Iowa, for 7. McCain's recent presence in Iowa has been dismissed as an oddity, and I doubt he'll be back there in the next six days. 248:188.
Now let's just say Missouri is just as disappointing as my friend Cara insists, so it goes for McCain. He's creepin up! It's now 248:199.
Let's give McCain Nevada too because fuck it, I want to be pessimistic. Some would say McCain won't take PA, or MO, or NH, or NV, but I gave him them all, fuck it. 248:204.
Indiana, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida remain. How many more of these can I give McCain before Obama's win is actually eclipsed?
Start with Indiana. 248:215. Fuck it, take Ohio too. 248:235. Shit be HAIRY now, right?
VA, NC, and FL remain. I've given Obama part of his Western Stronghold, and I've given McCain every other toss-up, and even envisioned a dark, dark world where he has even run off with Pennsylvania.
If Obama takes Virginia, he has 261, and needs one of NC and FL.
If Obama takes North Carolina instead, he has 263, and needs one of VA and FL.
If Obama takes Florida, he wins.
Let's roll the scenario back, and give some states back to Obama because some of my assignments to McCain here are just fucking crazy.
Give Obama New Hampshire back. 252:226. Florida alone can still win.
Give Obama Pennsylvania back. Obama wins. To soon! Let's take back PA, because we have to assume conditions where McCain can win to keep the game alive.
Give Obama Nevada. 257:226. At this point, either Virginia, North Carolina, or Florida on its own puts Obama over the finish line. Keep in mind, he is still bereaved of Pennsylvania.
Give Obama Missouri. 268:215. Any of the 3 can win.
Now, at long last, let's give Obama Pennsylvania back, because it was always his, and take states from him until we see what his east coast map really has to look like if he's definitely going to win. So when I add PA to everything Obama has up to now on my map, he has 289.
Take Nevada away. 284. Take Missouri away. 273. Take New Mexico away. 268. Take Colorado away. 259. Take Iowa away. 252.
How about that! Florida alone still wins, and any other combination of the two wins! Even without a single Kerry Map upset occurring west of Eastern time he can lock it in.
If Iowa really is blue, then any one of those three states on its own will lock it in.
Virgina, North Carolina, and Florida. They will provide Obama his win condition, and instead of watching TV, we can party.